China fears Russia chaos after Wagner uprising

Revolt seen as wake-up call for Beijing as a weakened Putin may trigger further insurgencies

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony at the Kremlin on March 21. (File photo by Reuters) 

AMY CHEW, Contributing writerJune 27, 2023 13:40 JST

 

China's special envoy for Ukraine declined to take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Memory Wall of the Fallen Heroes in Kyiv last month -- an act that most international visitors to the country perform.

On his two-day trip to the country, Liu Hui also skipped a visit to Bucha, a city near the capital where the BBC and other media reported more than 1,000 civilians and prisoners of war were killed in a massacre. Instead, he headed straight for talks with top Ukrainian officials and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

A senior Ukrainian official involved in the talks told Nikkei Asia that China at that time was already concerned about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would hold onto his grip on power.

The trip was a "reconnaissance mission" to see how determined Kyiv was to push on with its counteroffensive, as even "a limited success of Ukraine's counteroffensive could trigger destabilization in Russia," said the official, who asked not to be named. "There would be fighting between the military, Chechens, Wagner, FSB [Russia's Federal Security Service] ... complete chaos. This is China's biggest fear."

China's fears were substantiated by the weekend insurrection of the Wagner paramilitary group.

The whole episode of Wagner's mutiny "evidently [has] been unnerving for China," said Andrew Small, senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program.

"Internal unrest in Russia would be one of the worst possible scenarios for Beijing, and there will also be anxiety about whether they have a good read on power dynamics in Moscow," said Small, author of "No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West."

For now, Small believes China will continue to provide support to Russia.

"I'm sure that they'll be thinking harder about alternative political scenarios than they were. For now though, I suspect they will be trying to get the best possible read on events rather than rethinking their approach," said Small.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private mercenary group, speaks inside the headquarters of the Russian southern army military command center in this still image taken from a video released June 24.   © Concord/Reuters

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, cautioned against an "early demise of Putin," who has served as either president or prime minister of Russia for more than two decades.

"This [mutiny] is an embarrassing event" for Putin, said Gabuev, who did not see the demise of the president any time soon. "There is no alternative power center in Russia right now and he is still in charge."

Gabuev added that Putin's current weakness gives China greater leverage, as the president is weaker at home and the overall Sino-Russian relationship will be guided by the strategic U.S.-China rivalry.

Economist Mark Savchuk, head of the oversight committee of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, warned that nuclear-armed Russia could potentially break into five different countries.

"Russia breaking down into five smaller countries is a real possibility right now. This raises the serious question of who will control the nuclear weapons, and who does the West negotiate with in the event that happens," said Savchuk.

Savchuk doubts any new, smaller states will give up their nuclear weapons, as they will have seen what happened to Ukraine after it surrendered its nuclear weapons following the fall of the Soviet Union. Back then, Ukraine gave up the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in return for Moscow's security guarantee and respect for its territorial integrity.

The weakened state of Putin is also expected to affect China's potential future plans to take over Taiwan, an island that Beijing views as a breakaway province.

"This will definitely play into any calculation of Beijing to 'retake' Taiwan now that they do not have a strong ally in Russia to back them anymore," said Savchuk.

"The coup attempt showed that Putin's regime is, in fact, even weaker than [what] China had estimated, and Putin's political demise may be much closer than it originally seemed," said the Ukrainian official, who added that the fall of dictators throughout Russia's history has always been chaotic and often bloody.

He said Russia is ruled like an organized criminal gang: When the boss is in full control, everyone bows and pledges loyalty to him. But once there is a sign of weakness, "they will go after the boss."

"Such struggle will inevitably generate instability all across Russia with hundreds of ethnic and religious minorities. China wants Russia to be weakened, as it already is, but stable and predictable," said the source.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/China-fears-Russia-chaos-after-Wagner-uprising