April 20, 2023 Updated:
April 21, 2023
Afghanistan's acting
first deputy prime minister Abdul Ghani Baradar (L) and China's ambassador to
Afghanistan Wang Yu in Kabul on Jan. 5, 2023. (Ahmad Sahel Arman/AFP via Getty
Images)
A Chinese company has
offered the Taliban $10 billion and a proposal to build key strategic
infrastructure connecting north-south Afghanistan in exchange for access to the
country’s lithium reserves. Some experts raised concerns that the offer would
allow the Chinese regime to expand its influence in the region.
The proposal was
discussed between a representative of Gochin and the acting minister of the
Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, Sheikh Hadith Shahabuddin
Delawar, in his office on April 13. The talks happened just a few months after the Taliban
arrested two Chinese nationals trying to smuggle 1,000 metric tons of
lithium-bearing rocks out of the country.
Experts said it needs to
be seen if the deal is feasible, but once signed, it will have diplomatic and
political ramifications, and the proposed infrastructure development will
likely have a long-term strategic impact.
“Geopolitically, this
deal could give China a significant advantage and influence in the region, as
it secures a supply of critical resources and strengthens its presence in
Afghanistan,” Maher Saadat, an exiled activist and Afghan affairs analyst, told
The Epoch Times in an email.
Afghanistan’s lithium
reserves potentially rival those of Bolivia, which has the world’s most
significant amount of lithium resources. The Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and
Petroleum said in a press release that the deal, once executed, will
provide direct employment to 120,000 people and indirectly to 1 million.
Abhishek Darbey, a
research associate of the Chinese Research Program at the New Delhi-based
Center for China Analysis and Strategy (CCAS), pointed out to The Epoch Times
in an email that China is among the first countries that supported the Taliban
to form a government in Kabul following the withdrawal of the United States
from the country. He believes the Chinese regime wants to control the region.
“In the case of
Afghanistan, the country is important for China because the land domain of the
Belt and Road Initiative will pass through this region, and a peaceful
Afghanistan will create favorable conditions for the BRI to grow and progress,”
he said.
“Also, China considers
itself to be a major power of the region and, therefore, it wants to be a
participant in [the] decision-making of the region or wants to be a power with
a capacity to influence the regional politics,” he added.
Lithium
for the Taliban
Afghanistan’s lithium
reserves are a quick source of money for the Taliban, but they don’t have a
long-term strategic goal for it, according to the experts.
“They may view it as an
opportunity to generate immediate revenue to fund their activities and
consolidate their power, given their history of relying on various sources of
illicit financings, such as drug trafficking and extortion,” Saadat said.
The Taliban’s focus on
immediate financial gains—without considering the long-term implications and
sustainable development of the lithium deposits—is likely to limit the
potential benefits of the reserves for Afghanistan and its people, he said.
“[It] will not contribute
to the overall socio-economic development and stability of the country with
certainty,” he said.
The first lithium mine
was discovered in Ghazni city in 2013. These rare mineral mines are located in
five areas in Afghanistan: Herat, Shuryak Valley, Tagab District in Kapisa
Province, Nawur District in Ghazni Province, and Badakhshan.
Darbey said the Chinese
interest in the region is not new—in 2021, two Chinese companies were sent to
Ghazni to conduct technical research and inspect lithium and goldmines.
While China’s lithium
reserves are depleting, the Afghan deposits are unexploited. Five Chinese
companies have set up their representative offices in Afghanistan, and around
20 Chinese companies have made inquiries about lithium projects, according to
Darbey.
Delawar said that the
contract of the mines in Afghanistan would be given according to the Taliban’s
law.
Darbey pointed out that
the Taliban government is already supporting Chinese investment in its wider
mining sector, and China’s two largest lithium miners—Tianqi and Ganfeng—have
already examined the lithium mines in Afghanistan.
Infrastructure
Development
The Taliban’s Ministry of
Mines and Petroleum said in its press release that the Chinese had proposed
developing three infrastructure projects: the Salang Tunnel that connects north
Afghanistan with Kabul, the Nuristan highway that connects Kunar to Laghman,
and a power dam project.
“The Chinese side has
said that they will repair Salang Pass for smooth transportation between China
and Afghanistan for the purpose of mining and other activities,” Darbey said.
Gochin has proposed
to repair the Salang Pass—a lifeline of Afghanistan—in seven months and carve
another tunnel over the pass.
The fight for Salang Pass
has been an important part of Afghanistan’s war history because of its
strategic location on the map—the Soviet Union and the United States used it to move
military troops. Today the pass is important for the Taliban’s military
movement.
The first construction
for the two-lane Salang highway across the Hindukush mountains, which included
creating a 1.7-mile-long tunnel at the Salang Pass at 3,400 meters above sea
level, was undertaken by the Soviets in the 1960s.
The narrowness of the
Salang Pass is one of the factors responsible for the chaotic U.S. withdrawal
from the country, according to Saadat, who said that the U.S. military
heavily relied on airlifting supplies because it was difficult to move heavy
equipment through the pass.
“This airlifting was not
only logistically challenging but also economically expensive, which added to
the overall cost of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan,” he said, adding
that the high cost of the war in Afghanistan was one of the main reasons the
United States left the country.
Today the Taliban
controls the crucial transportation route for moving fighters and supplies
across the country because they have complete control over the Salang Tunnel,
making it indispensable for the Taliban’s military operations, according to
Saadat.
“Additionally, the
Nuristan Highway and Power Dam provide the Taliban with an opportunity to
control the region’s infrastructure, which can be used to exert power and
influence over the local population,” he said.
The Taliban had last year announced that tariffs on freight traffic would
generate $341 million in its treasury. Saadat said that the Chinese-proposed
projects could also generate revenue through taxation and extortion, which can
be used to fund Taliban activities and consolidate its power.
Darbey said that with
more Chinese infrastructure projects, it’s likely that the Chinese will train
Taliban troops to improve their security apparatus in a short amount of time.
“The possibility of
sending Chinese security troops in the region also cannot be undermined,” he
said.
The overall situation
could also create tensions with other countries that have interests in the
region, potentially leading to conflicts or strained international relations,
according to Saadat.
“Furthermore, it could
lead to China creating a debt trap for the Taliban, increasing its economic leverage
in Afghanistan and potentially affecting the geopolitical dynamics in the
region,” he said.
Connection
With Central Asia
Experts said the proposed
infrastructure development would help improve Afghanistan’s connectivity with
Central Asia, benefiting China.
Saadat said that by
offering to repair the Salang Pass in seven months, China is offering the
Taliban a crucial transportation route that connects Kabul to the Central Asian
market through Hairatan.
Hairatan is a town in the
northern Balkh Province of Afghanistan and borders Uzbekistan. It was through
the same borders that landlocked Uzbekistan, which hosted the U.S.-led
coalition forces in 2001 that toppled the Taliban after 9/11.
After the Taliban took over in 2021, Uzbekistan continued to do business with
Afghanistan through the same border as its firms sought a path through
Afghanistan to ports in Pakistan and Iran.
The Taliban is also a
part of the “East-West Railway Corridor project” that stretches from China to Europe
through Iran and Afghanistan, and a north-south connection through Salang is
important for the overall navigation map of Central Asia that China is
developing.
“The importance of Salang
Pass for the Taliban is that they cannot do it themselves, and it would enable
them to access and export the lithium deposits, which they see as a quick
source of money,” he said.
Challenges
Although China has a
number of investors willing to invest in Afghan lithium reserves, they will
face challenges and risks, including a treacherous topography and increasing
terrorist attacks, according to the experts.
“First, throughout the
year, harsh climatic conditions prevail over the geographical location of
Wakhan Corridor connecting the two countries, and the region remains
snow-covered for at least nine months,” Darbey said.
The Chinese regime will
have to improve its logistics across this region to ensure the smooth
transportation of raw lithium from the mines of Afghanistan to China. He said
that improving transport facilities might not be challenging for the Chinese
because they have experience building logistics systems in similar terrain in Tibet
and Xinjiang.
The other challenge is
ISIS. Since November 2021, ISIS has launched 248 attacks, and in retaliation,
the Taliban government has conducted 132 military operations against it,
according to Darbey. He said that despite all the counter operations, the
Chinese nationals in Afghanistan are not safe.
“Though the Taliban
government has repeatedly spoken to ensure [the] security of the Chinese
investment and investors’ lives, it still has a long way to go before it
guarantees the safety and security of the Chinese citizens working in the
mining industries.”
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