He’s doubling down on an unpopular
policy mix, hoping the economy improves.
President Joe Biden delivers the
State of the Union address in Washington, Feb. 7.PHOTO: ANDREW
CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Appeared in the February 9, 2023, print edition as 'Biden’s
State of the Union Was a Bad Bet'
By Karl
Rove
Feb. 8, 2023 6:25 pm ET
President Joe Biden considers
himself a blue-collar working stiff from middle America. But another side of
Scranton Joe was on display in his State of the Union address Tuesday night: a
high-rolling gambler.
His speech was one gigantic political bet. Team Biden knows
that Americans feel both that the economy is in bad shape and that things have
gotten worse for their families since he took office. Workers’ wages rose less
than prices last year, which probably explains these sour feelings.
This—along with his malaprops and advanced age—have left
only about a quarter of Americans confident in his ability to run the White
House. Only 37% of Democrats want him to run again. Lest anyone think things
are on an upswing: It was 52% before the midterms.
Even last month’s jobs numbers haven’t helped Mr. Biden. In
a Feb 1. Washington Post/ABC poll, 60% of respondents say Mr. Biden hasn’t made
progress in “creating more good jobs” in their communities. That’s part of the
president’s bigger problem: 62% say he has accomplished “not very much” or
“little or nothing” while in the Oval Office.
It’s remarkable then that Tuesday Mr. Biden doubled down.
He’s betting big that the economy is already turning around. He crowed loudly about
its improving state, rewrote history where needed (“two years ago, the economy
was reeling”) and urged Americans to “finish the job.” That phrase was the
subject line of a fundraising email he sent at 10:24 p.m. asking for $7 for the
DNC, apparently while in the limo back to the White House. Now we know his 2024
re-election slogan.
Will staying the course work for Mr. Biden? Maybe. That
strategy paid off for Ronald Reagan, who had worse polling and economic
numbers at this point in his first term. But Mr. Reagan had something Mr. Biden
doesn’t have—a good plan. While Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was
aggressively stamping out inflation, Mr. Reagan was cutting taxes, slashing red
tape and unnecessary regulation, freeing up the economy, reining in Washington’s
spending, and creating confidence through an optimistic but realistic
conversation about the nation’s challenges.
By contrast, Mr. Biden raised taxes, dramatically scaled up
the regulatory burden, puffed up domestic government spending, and undermined
public confidence with his bumbling ways. On Tuesday he advocated for more of
the same for the next two years. House Republicans will, of course, keep this
from happening. But if the economy recovers, the president will argue it was in
spite of GOP intransigence. If inflation doesn’t dissipate or a recession
arrives, Mr. Biden will blame Republicans.
The president also signaled he’ll adopt a left-populist tone
for his re-election. On Tuesday he went after the oil and gas industry,
billionaires who don’t pay taxes, credit-card companies, airlines, banks and
internet and wireless network providers. He promised each would be the object
of legislative proposals.
Most of these were phony assaults, designed to distract. For
example, while he criticized oil companies for having “invested too
little . . . to increase domestic production,” his
administration has closed federal lands and waters for drilling, slow-played
existing leasing, canceled pipelines and blocked rapid approval of
infrastructure needed to move energy from the wellhead to refineries and
markets. But faux outrage enlivened what could have been a dull speech.
It’s also interesting what went unmentioned. Team Biden
understands its signature $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan wasn’t
well-received. Americans don’t think it did much except increase inflation.
That’s why it wasn’t brought up Tuesday. Also, no mention of the Chinese spy
balloon, except to dismiss China’s power.
The policy section of Mr. Biden’s speech called for the
unlikely (comprehensive immigration reform), impossible (ban of semi-automatic
guns), implausible (national teacher pay raise) and fanciful (unlimited
abortion access law). Don’t expect any of these to be seriously pushed or
considered, except to score political points.
Team Biden’s risky bet on the economy is unlikely to pay
off, at least not without a ginormous assist from congressional Republicans or
the eventual GOP nominee. People have made up their minds about Mr. Biden. They
don’t believe he has made their paychecks bigger, inflation smaller or the
economy stronger. They don’t see him as the powerful, effective leader the U.S.
needs for the next six years. Tuesday’s State of the Union didn’t change public
opinion’s underlying contours. In their heart of hearts, Americans hope he
stays healthy and can handle things while the country settles on a new
president.
He was elected as a transitional figure. Voters still hope he is.
Mr. Rove helped organize the
political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of
William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
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