Analysis: Was object spotted over Japan in 2020 a Chinese spy balloon?

The flight path went above Self-Defense Force facilities

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer

FEBRUARY 9, 2023 04:00 JST

A white spherical object spotted over Sendai, Japan in June 2020, left, and a suspected Chinese spy balloon being shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4. (Nikkei montage/Kyodo/Reuters)

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

It was a beautiful morning in Sendai on June 17, 2020, with a bright blue sky expanding over the northeastern Japanese city.

A resident vividly remembers her commute to work and thinking how unusual it was to have such gorgeous weather during Japan's dreary rainy season.

Near the Miyagi prefectural government building, she looked up and spotted a mysterious flying object. A white balloon-like round object was floating in the air.

It looked extremely large, considering how high up it was. It seemed to be slowly moving from southwest to northeast.

"It brought back memories of a UFO that I saw as a child and the spine-chilling fear I felt back then," the resident told Nikkei.

Not much was made of the incident. The nation was more concerned about the pandemic, which was in its early stages, and the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

But the recent discovery of a Chinese balloon flying over the U.S. has shed new light on the incident.

Miyagi is home to many airfields, ports and bases used by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Were the Chinese observing these facilities key to Japan's security as well?

The balloon over America was shot down on Saturday by a state-of-the-art F-22 stealth fighter on the orders of President Joe Biden.

Destroyed over the Atlantic Ocean off the U.S. East Coast, the balloon was the size of three buses, U.S. government officials were quoted as saying.

The balloon fell into the sea with a solar panel-like and board-shaped structure dangling from its bottom. It was reportedly capable of moving with accompanying propellers.

Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of the U.S. Northern Command, told reporters on Monday that the balloon was estimated to be about 60 meters tall and that its payload weighed more than 900 kilograms.

In the case of the Sendai object, photographs taken from the Sendai Astronomical Observatory and visual observation from a helicopter have confirmed a cross-shaped structure and something resembling a solar panel dangling from the white spherical object. It also was equipped with two revolving propellers.

On Monday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman briefed some 150 people from about 40 embassies on China's balloon espionage, The Washington Post reported.

Separately, U.S. officials have begun to share specifics with officials in countries such as Japan whose military facilities were targeted by Beijing, according to the Post.

The F-22 Raptor that shot down the Chinese airship takes off from Joint Base Langley-Eustis, in the state of Virginia, on Feb. 4.   © U.S. Air Force/AP

The report notes that the surveillance balloon effort has been operated for several years, partly out of Hainan province, off China's southern coast.

The flying object spotted over Sendai came from the southwest, riding on westerly jet streams. It slowly flew northeast across Miyagi on June 17, 2020, eventually disappearing into skies over the Pacific Ocean.

Multiple SDF facilities are situated under the flight path. The headquarters of the Ground Self-Defense Force's Northeastern Army is located 5 km east of the Miyagi prefectural government building.

The GSDF's Camp Tagajo lies 15 km to the east, and some 40 km to the northeast is the Air Self-Defense Force's Matsushima Air Base, home to the Blue Impulse aerobatic demonstration team.

Perhaps the use of the word "balloon" lends too much of a peaceful connotation. The three-bus-long spherical object was far from the fluffy sightseeing balloons one might imagine.

It was, in fact, a small- to medium-sized airship. Violating U.S. space, the airship flew over the continental U.S. for days. It was only natural for the people of America to feel uneasy.

The Washington Post quoted a senior defense official saying: "This was a PRC surveillance balloon," categorically rejecting China's assertion that the airship was a weather balloon blown off course. "This is false," the official said. "We are confident it was seeking to monitor sensitive military sites."

Security officials pointed out that the structure dangling from the airship was large enough to carry specialized cameras, communication tools and measuring equipment.

On Monday, Miyagi Gov. Yoshihiro Murai was asked about the 2020 incident at his regular news conference. Murai is a former member of the Ground SDF and once worked as a helicopter pilot of the Northeastern Army.

Miyagi Gov. Yoshihiro Murai, left, and members of the Self-Defense Forces wrap up quake and tsunami relief operations in Sendai on Aug. 1, 2011.   © Kyodo

The object sighted three years ago above Sendai "does resemble" the balloon that flew over the U.S., Murai said.

"We still do not know if that object belonged to China," Murai said of the Sendai incident. Back then, the prefectural government did not contact the central government for help in understanding what the object might be, Murai said, but added the next time such an incident occurred he definitely would.

Murai was cautious with his remarks. But as both he and eyewitnesses attest, it is clear that the flying object spotted in Japan three years ago looks similar to what the U.S. shot down.

Back in 2020, then Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was asked by reporters about the mysterious flying object spotted over Sendai. He denied that it came from a foreign country hostile to Japan and simply said that the government was "conducting necessary warning and surveillance." In retrospect, the approach lacked urgency.

The Chinese government's explanation that a civilian airship used for meteorological research deviated far from its planned course raises more questions than it answers. In China, where the Chinese Communist Party controls all aspects of society, "there are no purely private Chinese organizations in sectors related to security, including aerospace, telecommunications and weather observation," said a former Japanese diplomat with long experience in China.

For example, the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, the Chinese equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System, is not directly managed and operated by the military formally. But there is no doubt that the most important uses of the BeiDou System are for military and security purposes, such as conducting communications and guiding military aircraft, warships and official ships.

A rocket takes off carrying the 55th satellite that will make up China's answer to the GPS on June 23, 2022.   © Kyodo

The system is on the front line of the serious security confrontation and struggle for technological supremacy between the U.S. and China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has consistently advocated "military-civilian integration," which means developing and operating military and civilian technologies in an integrated manner.

Even if the Chinese airship had been flying over the U.S. primarily for weather observation, there is a good chance that any information gathered by it will be used for military purposes as well.

The Chinese violation of U.S. airspace came immediately before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's planned visit to China. U.S. sources have said Blinken would have met Xi if the trip had gone along as planned.

But Blinken canceled the trip.

Antony Blinken in Jerusalem on Jan. 31. The U.S. secretary of state called off a visit to China due to Beijing's provocative "meteorological" mission above the U.S.   © Reuters

The big question is why China would make such a provocative and diplomatically inconsistent move now?

A person familiar with Chinese security noted that the Chinese military and security-related organizations regularly conduct shitan, drills meant to test an enemy's response. These tests are conducted regardless of whether the Chinese Foreign Ministry wants to project a conciliatory tone.

The only way the security apparatus halts a shitan is if there is an order from the top. But the top leader is not aware of all actions taken by domestic security-related organizations.

For now, any easing of tensions between the U.S. and China look to be an uphill climb. Yet, it is not that all connections between the countries have been lost.

Many regional countries hope both sides sit down at the negotiating table at the earliest possible date. When might that day come? An apology from Beijing and not lodging protests at the shooting down of the balloon would seem to be prerequisites.

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