BY ISABEL VAN BRUGEN ON 12/29/22 AT 5:30
AM EST
Soldiers of a Ukrainian intelligence battalion drive to the frontline on December 28, 2022 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. Taking the city would be symbolic for Russia as it would enable Putin to show some form of military victory, said one expert.PIERRE CROM
The battle for Bakhmut appears to be on the brink as mercenary
unit, the Wagner Group, has suffered heavy losses in the city in Ukraine's
eastern Donbas region, according to an assessment by the Institute for the
Study of War (ISW).
The U.S.-based think tank said Wednesday that
there are several indicators that support the assessment that Russian forces
and members of the Wagner Group around Bakhmut have culminated—the
point at which an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance.
On December 24, the ISW had said that the Wagner Group's
reported heavy losses in the area in recent weeks had likely
"strained" Russian forces' current operational capabilities in
Bakhmut.
Russian forces in the
region have been led by members of the mercenary unit, the Wagner Group,
founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In its daily
assessment of the Ukraine war, the ISW said Russian airborne forces (VDV) have
reportedly been augmenting Wagner Group operations around Bakhmut, citing a
Russian source that reported that Wagner and VDV elements conducted joint operations in the city on Tuesday.
"The report, if true, marks an inflection
given that the Wagner Group has been conducting information operations to
assert that the Wagner Group forces exclusively are operating in Bakhmut,"
the think tank wrote. "The conventional Russian military supporting Wagner
Group elements in Bakhmut—after Wagner took efforts to emphasize it exclusively
is responsible for the Bakhmut sector—would be consistent with indicators for
the Wagner Group forces' culmination."
The ISW said it has previously assessed that
Wagner Group forces were mainly serving an attritional role around Bakhmut and
had therefore likely become degraded to a "near-debilitating extent"
and "needed reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements."
"High rates of attrition amongst the forces responsible for the offensive on Bakhmut may expedite the culmination unless notable numbers of regular Russian military units are sent to sustain the offensive and delay or avert its culmination," it concluded.
READ MORE
·
Russia running out of troops in battle for Bakhmut, battalions
split up—ISW
·
Russia reinforces Luhansk frontline as Ukraine sets sights on
Donbas —MOD
·
Video shows helicopter fire flares over intense Bakhmut battle:
Ukraine
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky had said that the intensifying
battle for Bakhmut was taking a heavy toll on Russian forces while remaining
the "hottest spot" in the war.
Serhiy Haidai,
governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on his Telegram channel
on Monday that thousands of Russian troops had died in the battle for Bakhmut.
The region has been a focal point of the
Russian offensive for several months.
Jon Roozenbeek, a
British Academy postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge, previously told Newsweek that taking the town would be symbolic for Russia as it
would enable Putin to show some form of military victory.
Roozenbeek said that the town itself, which
had a pre-war population of 70,000, doesn't hold a lot of strategic value, but
the location does. He explained that taking Bakhmut would enable Putin's troops
to launch artillery strikes on key places, such as the cities of Kramatorsk and
Slovyansk in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine's Ministry of
Defense published a video on Wednesday showing a Ukrainian helicopter firing flares over Bakhmut.
"Bakhmut is for those who have guts.
Bakhmut is the city of heroes. We will never surrender. We will win," the
ministry tweeted.
Newsweek reached out to Russia's Foreign Ministry
for comment.
https://www.newsweek.com/bakhmut-battle-wagner-group-heavy-losses-isw-1770075
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