By Alexandra Alper, Karen Freifeld and Jonathan Landay
June 30, 20222:15 AM GMT+7
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends Caspian Summit in
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan June 29, 2022. Sputnik/Grigory Sysoyev/Pool via REUTERS
WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Russian
President Vladimir Putin still wants to seize most of Ukraine, but his forces
are so degraded by combat that they likely can only achieve incremental gains
in the near term, the top U.S. intelligence officer said Wednesday.
Director of National Intelligence Avril
Haines, outlining the current U.S. intelligence assessment of the more than
four-month war, said that the consensus of U.S. spy agencies is that it will
grind on "for an extended period of time."
"In short, the picture remains pretty
grim and Russia's attitude toward the West is hardening," Haines told a
Commerce Department conference.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy this
week told U.S. President Joe Biden and other G7 leaders that he wants the war
over by the end of the year.
But Haines' comments suggested that the
billions of dollars in modern arms being supplied by the United States and
other countries to Zelinskiy's forces may not give them the ability to turn the
tide against Russia any time soon.
She said that Putin remains intent on
overruning most of Ukraine even though Ukrainian forces beat back Russia's
attempt to capture the capital Kyiv in February, forcing Moscow to reduce its
target to seizing the entire eastern Donbas region.
"We think he has effectively the same
political goals that we had previously, which is to say that he wants to take
most of Ukraine," Haines said.
Russian forces, however, have been so
degraded by more than four months of combat that it is unlikely they can
achieve Putin's goal any time soon, Haines said in her first public assessment
of the war since May.
"We perceive a disconnect between
Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity,
a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to
accomplish," she said.
Haines said U.S. intelligence agencies see
three possible scenarios, the most likely being a grinding conflict in which
Russian forces "make incremental gains, with no breathrough."
The other scenarios include a major Russian
breakthrough and Ukraine succeeding in stabilizing the frontlines while
achieving small gains, perhaps near the Russian-held city of Kherson and other
areas of southern Ukraine.
It will take years for Russia to rebuild its
forces, she said.
"During this period, we anticipate that
they're going to be more reliant on assymetric tools that they have, such as
cyber attacks, efforts to control energy, even nuclear weapons in order to try
to manage and project power and influence globally," Haines said.
"In the interim, Russian troops are
unlikely to be able to conduct multiple simultaneous operations," Haines
continued.
Putin's priority now, she said, is making
gains in the Donbas region and collapsing Ukrainian forces, a development that
Russia assesses will "cause the resistance from within to slump."
Haines' comments came after a summit of NATO leaders on
Wednesday branded Russia the most "direct threat" to alliance
security and vowed to modernize Kyiv's forces, saying it stood behind their
"heroic defense of their country." read more
Russia launched what it calls a "special
military operation" against Ukraine on Feb. 24 to eliminate what it deemed
a fascist government that threatened its security.
Ukraine, the United States and other
countries say Russia is conducting an unjustified war of aggression against its
neighbor.
Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu; editing by Alistair Bell
and Deepa Babington
Fables:
Once upon a time, in the cold winter, the wolf knocked on
the door of the Rabbit's house, begging for food. Seeing that the wolf was
hungry and cold, the rabbit felt sorry for the wolf and fed him.
After eating, Wolf groaned: - It's too cold, Rabbit, let me put one leg in the house to keep warm. Just one leg, it won't do any harm.
The wolf poked his first leg into the house.
Quiet for a while, Wolf flirted and praised Rabbit : “Rabbit, you are wise and intelligent, strong-willed, faithful and affectionate Rabbit,” Wolf whispered, “Rabbit, Wolf wants to give Rabbit a really big, sweet, real carrot. But unfortunately, the door is narrow, only one leg, i can't give carrot for you. Rabbit, please open the door a little, just a little."
Looking at the carrot clearly big, clear sweet, fresh, Rabbit craved to drool, involuntarily reaching out to open the door. The Wolf was just waiting for that to bring the second dirty leg into the house.
The wolf continued to ask to put the 3rd and 4th leg in the house because it was too cold, he cried and begged the Rabbit for mercy... finally the Rabbit opened the door for him to come in ....
Ending: wolf eats rabbit
It is also the expansionist strategy of land acquisition!
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