BY
Russia's
military can only last about 90 more days in Ukraine before its forces and
equipment become too depleted to continue, a military expert told Newsweek.
Sean
Spoonts, editor-in-chief of the military news outlet SOFREP, said on Thursday Russian
President Vladimir Putin's
forces have already expended a sizable portion of their arsenal since the war
began in late February. He also noted that Russia is facing difficulties replenishing
military equipment and vehicles due to supply chain
interruptions and severe economic sanctions.
After first estimating Russia has three months before it may
decide it needs to cut its losses, Spoonts said that figure may be on the high
side.
"I think the Russians would not be able to go much further
than 90 days longer," Spoonts said. "At the bleed rate that they're
going through right now, 90 days may be stretching it."
Spoonts said evidence that Russia's troop
ranks and arsenal are suffering can be seen by how troops units and equipment
were recently moved from Russia's border with Mongolia thousands of miles away
and placed in Ukraine.
"That's desperation," he said.
Russia's military has
faced large numbers of casualties in ground conflict, while its naval forces
have struggled on the waters of the Black Sea. Even the country's air force, which experts
felt would be a dominant factor in Russia claiming a quick victory in Ukraine,
has failed to establish air superiority.
Throughout the
conflict, Putin has repeatedly warned NATO about interfering, even going so far as
to say "lightning fast" retaliation would come to any countries that
provided Ukraine with the ability to make a strategic threat against Russia.
Given the damage sustained to his forces already, Spoonts said he doesn't feel
Putin could mount much of a challenge should he become engaged in combat with
NATO.
"NATO would slaughter them," Spoonts
said. "And they would do it mostly with air assets."
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He said the U.S. could have 200 to 300
military aircraft over to strike Russia within a week. The American firepower
combined with the militaries from Poland, France, Germany and the United
Kingdom would give NATO a "formidable fighting force," and Russia
would be "stopped cold."
"The Ukrainians did that without an air
force," Spoonts said.
On Wednesday, U.S.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd
Austin said during a
hearing of the House Appropriations Subcommittee that he believes Putin wouldn't want a direct conflict with the
powerful forces of NATO.
"If Russia decides to attack any nation
that's a NATO member, then that's a game changer," Austin said in response
to a question about possible Russian escalation. "But if you look at
Putin's calculus, my view—and I'm sure the chairman has his own view—but my
view is that Russia doesn't want to take on the NATO alliance."
Newsweek reached out to Russia's defense ministry
for comment.
https://www.newsweek.com/military-expert-gives-putins-forces-90-days-ukraine-1706246
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