Investigation suggests 600 died in Russian attack on Mariupol theatre

Journalists worked with witnesses and experts to calculate much higher toll

The Associated Press · Posted: May 04, 2022 7:49 AM ET | Last Updated: May 4

Close to 600 people died in the Russian airstrike on the Mariupol drama theatre on March 16, evidence from an Associated Press investigation suggests. That is around twice the city government's initial estimate of 300, making it the deadliest single known attack against civilians in the Ukraine war.

AP journalists drew on accounts of 23 survivors, rescuers and people intimately familiar with the shelter operating at the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theatre. The investigation also relied on two sets of floor plans of the theatre, and photos and video taken inside before, during and after that day and feedback from experts.

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Russia attacked the grand, columned Mariupol Drama Theatre on March 16. Hundreds of people were said to be taking cover there at the time and the word "children" was printed in Russian in huge white letters on the ground outside to ward off aerial attack.

People walk past the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theatre in Mariupol, Ukraine, following Russia's March 16 attack on the theatre. The bombing stands out as the single deadliest known attack against civilians to date in the Ukraine war. (Alexei Alexandrov/The Associated Press)

Witnesses and survivors walked AP journalists through a 3D model of the theatre, virtually navigating the floor plan to point out where people were sheltering room by room and how densely crowded each space was.

Sixteen direct witnesses, most of them who had been inside the theatre, said the building was packed at the time of the attack. According to The Associated Press, witnesses said that upward of 100 people were at the field kitchen outside the building, and that everyone there died.

In a photograph taken before the attack, residents are seen sheltering in the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theatre on March 7 in Mariupol. (Lev Sandalov/The Associated Press)

Most accounts have estimated there were around 1,000 people were in the theatre at the time, while one witness believed there were just a few hundred people, and another put it closer to 1,300.

No one, including rescuers, saw more than 200 people escape alive, and most saw far fewer. Those numbers are in line with survivor estimates of 130 from Mariupol city officials and 150 from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Survivors escaped from the main exit or a side entrance because other areas of the building were crushed.

After constructing the 3D model, the AP went back to witnesses to check and adjust. Two war crimes experts reviewed AP's methodology of matching floor plans against witness descriptions, and concluded that it was as sound and definitive as possible in the absence of access to the site.

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Two survivors estimated that around 300 had died, as authorities initially estimated, and the lack of bodies led a police officer and a Mariupol Red Cross official to speculate that the toll was fewer than 500.

But most witnesses claimed closer to 600 died, in line with the AP analysis of density, and suggested that the bodies were either pulverized into the dust or removed by the Russians. The AP also spoke with munitions experts during its investigation.

With communications severed, people coming and going constantly, and memories blurred by trauma, an exact death toll is impossible to determine.

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/investigation-death-count-mariupol-theatre-1.6440722

Almost 600 people died in Mariupol theatre bombing - twice as many as previously thought - investigation suggests

The 16 March bombing of a Mariupol theatre was the deadliest single known attack against civilians in the Ukraine war - and yet the death toll could be even higher than previously thought.

Ukrainian authorities and witnesses estimated about 300 people were killed in the airstrike, which reduced the building to rubble and left people trapped in the bomb shelter below.

An Associated Press investigation now suggests close to 600 people died in the attack.

The investigation has used interviews with 23 survivors, rescuers and people familiar with the shelter, as well as floor plans of the theatre, and photos and videos taken inside before, during and after that day.

Witnesses and survivors walked the journalists through the building virtually on a 3D floor plan, describing where people were sheltering room by room.

Oksana Syomina was in the basement with her husband at the time of the attack, and said they had to step over bodies as they fled.

"All the people are still under the rubble, because the rubble is still there – no one dug them up," she said, crying. "This is one big mass grave." 

Direct witnesses said there was about one person for every three square metres of free space in the rooms and hallways. They said upwards of 100 people were around the field kitchen at the time of the attack, and that all of them died.

Most of the witnesses said around 1,000 people were in the building at the time and no-one, including rescuers, saw more than 200 people escape alive.

https://news.sky.com