Keep allies American and stop Russia’s export of cheap missiles
January 17, 2022 Updated: January 17, 2022
News Analysis
Russia is
making inroads against democracies and traditional U.S. allies like the
Philippines, India, and Turkey, with its supply of cheap but unreliable defense
exports.
The
latest export win for Moscow came on
Jan. 14, when Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana communicated that
Manila approved an acquisition of the BrahMos supersonic missile system from an
Indian-Russian joint venture.
The
BrahMos land-based PJ-10 cruise missile, which will be used by the Philippine
Marines in an anti-ship capacity, is being sold by
the group for just $375 million. The Philippines will acquire three batteries
of missiles, consisting in total of six missile launchers, three radars, and
three command and control centers. Each road-mobile launcher has three missile
tubes.
Deepening Manila-Beijing
Ties
The
Philippine purchase is at least partly positive as a departure from Manila’s
deepening relationship with Beijing. But the U.S. pullback from the Philippines
that started in the early 1990s has opened the country for exploitation by both
Russia and China.
“The
Philippines essentially defected to Beijing a few years ago, but the free world
can always trust Chinese leaders to poison new friendships,” noted Gordon G.
Chang in an emailed comment on the BrahMos purchase.
Rick
Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center,
responded in an email about the purchase, “America’s decision to end its active
military presence in the Philippines will be viewed historically as one of its
greatest mistakes that paved the way to global hegemony under the Chinese
Communist Party.”
He said
that “China not only was actively involved in helping Philippine Senators to
decide not to approve a new treaty for the continued U.S. presence, China was
ready to exploit the power vacuum that resulted from the U.S. withdrawal.”
Fisher
said that the American decision “proved to the CCP that American leaders did
not have determination to win over the long term, that China could use many
stratagems to weaken the United States well before [Beijing] achieved nuclear
and conventional military superiority.”
The BrahMos Agreement and
Moscow
The
recent agreement to acquire BrahMos missiles was signed in March, when 200
Chinese maritime militia boats anchored in the Philippine exclusive economic
zone (EEZ) and refused to leave for months. Chinese fishing boats continuously
steal fish in Philippine waters, with little resistance from the U.S. and
Philippine governments. Beijing has sought to compromise both governments
through million-dollar business deals, targeting the families and associates of
the Philippine and American presidents, as well as the congressional leadership
in both capitals.
The Vladimir Rusanov, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker ship, is seen following its arrival at the LNG terminal in Nantong city, eastern China’s Jiangsu Province on July 19, 2018. The LNG/icebreaker tanker arrived in Nantong with its shipment of gas produced at the $27 billion Yamal LNG plant in the Siberian Arctic. (AFP via Getty Images)
Beijing
exerts influence over not only Manila and Washington, but Moscow as well, due
to China’s massive imports of Russian oil and gas and far larger economy.
Therefore, India and the Philippines’ purchase of Russian systems could be
built on a foundation of sand.
Russia
might have designed malfunction or a kill switch into its exported defense
systems. In an emergency, Russia might stop the supply of critical weapons
components and spare parts. It is difficult for India, the Philippines, and
other nations that buy cheap Russian military hardware to know whether it is
truly reliable. This trust deficit with Moscow puts the users of Russian
systems, including countries’ heads of state and diplomats, at a disadvantage
in their negotiations with Beijing.
BrahMos Missiles Not
Enough
Even if
the BrahMos missiles work perfectly, they are not enough. There are two major
vulnerabilities in the Philippine defense of its West Philippines Sea. First,
even after the purchase, China can occupy features, build artificial islands,
fish, and drill for oil and gas outside the range of the missiles but within
the at-minimum 200 nautical mile (nm) EEZ of the Philippines. The missiles have
a speed of Mach 2.8, but a range of just 156 nm, according to an Indian
official quoted in the Wall Street Journal.
The
BrahMos can launch from ships, as was proven in a test by
India’s Ministry of Defense on Jan. 11. But the missiles bound for the
Philippines will only be shore-based.
And the
Philippines needs better air defenses. In 2016 the Philippines won its South
China Sea EEZ back, de jure, in the Philippines v. China case. But the Chinese
air force sent an H-6K nuclear capable bomber over
Scarborough Shoal to signal its rejection of the ruling. The shoal is well
within the Philippines’ EEZ and far from the shores of China.
The
international arbitral tribunal in the Hague validated most of the Philippines’
EEZ, but wrongly shared fishing rights over the shoal with Chinese fishers,
increasing confusion and giving Beijing an excuse to militarize what has
historically been an almost exclusively Philippine fishing ground.
To
protect the Philippine EEZ, and avoid problems between democracies and U.S.
alliance members in the future, the United States and Europe should offer for
export a new line of military hardware that is reliable, yet inexpensive enough
to compete and win in bidding wars against cheap Russian and Chinese defense
exports. If necessary, the U.S. and European exports should be subsidized in
order to improve the coherence of Western alliance systems.
Such
inexpensive U.S. and allied defense exports could completely drive out
unreliable Russian systems that risk disaggregating U.S. alliance systems and
turning them into satellites of Moscow, or worse, Beijing.
Fisher
wrote that an effective deterrent against China could be created with a new
Philippine president and prodigious numbers of short- and medium-range
ballistic missiles.
“Washington
could base or gift to Manila a force of two hundred 500km range PrSM short
range ballistic missiles and 100 or so 1,500 to 2,000km range Typhon medium
range ballistic missiles, both soon to begin production,” wrote Fisher. “These
would be enough to put Chinese bases in the [Spratlys] out of commission and
pose a deadly threat to China’s nuclear submarines and aircraft [carrier] bases
at Hainan.”
Without
effective U.S.-Philippine military cooperation, continued Fisher, “the
Philippines may be neutralized for generations to come, a major Chinese goal as
it fights for hegemony in Asia and then globally.”
Chang
agrees, and argues that the United States, India, and the Philippines should
grow closer. He believes that “The growing cooperation among China’s victims
means Xi Jinping cannot accomplish his regime’s historic goals.”
Xi,
according to Chang, “has squandered good will and built an anti-Beijing
coalition. He can no longer intimidate. Manila is not just buying a missile; it
is entering a powerful pact.”
Views expressed in this article are the
opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch
Times.
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